Archive for September, 2006

Stocks: A top or just a pause?

Although the market has begun pulling back after becoming overbought as it tested important upside resistance levels, there’s no reason to assume – yet – that the current uptrend has ended. Unless or until the weekly trend analysis turns negative (it’s currently positive for most markets except, notably, the iShares Japan and Emerging Markets indices) [...]

Stocks, commodities: About to reverse course?

The ongoing rally in stocks has reaffirmed a positive weekly trend picture, but has also carried many market averages into overbought territory – just as the DJIA and S&P 500 (see chart below) are retesting their May highs. This isn’t necessarily a bearish sign – “overbought” (and “oversold“) conditions signal strength in a given direction [...]

Cracks appearing in the rally/DJ indices highlights

It’s not time to panic yet, but last week’s market sell-off succeeded in reverting the previously all-positive weekly trend analysis back to a mixed picture. For now, I’m continuing to view weakness here as probably representing short-term consolidation in an ongoing uptrend – but only as long as the S&P 500 remains above the all-important [...]

Commodities, $USD down = stocks up?

Last week’s market gains confirmed an ongoing uptrend and reinforced the likelihood that a retest of the May highs – at least for the DJIA and S&P 500 – appears to be underway. In fact, the only markets with negative trend spectrums on the current weekly trend analysis page are the Commodity Research Bureau Index [...]