Last week the market sold off after encountering resistance at the S&P 500’s 1350-1360 level, leaving the intermediate-term trend still generally negative (or at best neutral). The ingredients remain in place for a bottom to have formed or still be in the process of forming, but further probes to the downside – which I’ll [...]
The market trend picture remains mostly negative, but is reflecting some positive short-term signs. Last week’s technical action in wake of the Bear Stearn’s buyout, and the still overwhelmingly bearish sentiment on the part of most market observers increase the odds that the market may have found a bottom (or is in the process of [...]
Fear and panic further escalated last week – with some sentiment indicators reaching multi-year bearish extremes – increasing the odds that the market is nearing a significant bottom (in time, if not necessarily in price). While the sentiment ingredients for such a bottom are in place, the market trend picture itself remains negative (or at [...]
The market trend picture remains negative while at the same time the increasingly bearish sentiment – which now appears to be approaching extremes by several measures – suggests that a bottom of some sort may not be far off. Possible bottoming scenarios include a successful “retest” and hold near the January lows (i.e., about [...]
The technical picture following last week’s late sell-off suggests that a “retest” of the January lows may be underway. The continuing high level of bearish sentiment however would suggest that such a move might well be part of a bottoming process rather than a new, extended leg down in a bear market (at least [...]
