Archive for August, 2008

Market hanging on to uptrend; sentiment neutral

The market has spent the last three weeks basically going sideways within a still-intact intermediate-term uptrend. A break below key near-term support at ~1250-1260 (S&P 500) and ~11,300 (DJIA) would suggest a high probability of a retest of the July lows.
Sentiment levels as measured by the equity-only put/call ratio appear basically neutral here after coming [...]

Market holding support = positive sign

Another sideways week as the market retested key support levels (~1260 on the S&P 500 and ~11,300 on the DJIA), keeping intact the intermediate-term uptrend that’s been in place since mid July. Last week’s retest appeared to rattle the nerves of market participants (a positive sign from a contrarian perspective), so a move higher [...]

Market top? Or pause that refreshes?

The market basically went sideways last week after initially testing near-term upside resistance levels, which is consistent with corrective behavior within the current intermediate-term uptrend. If so, this would imply a move up through those levels – about 11,800-12,000 on the DJIA and 1300-1320 on the S&P 500 – at some point after this [...]

S&P 500 key levels: 1300-1320 above, 1250 below

The market remains in an intermediate-term uptrend and is approaching upside resistance at 1300-1320 on the S&P 500 and 11,800-12,000 on the DJIA. The market’s behavior at these levels should offer clues about the future of the current uptrend; meanwhile, a break below ~1250 on the S&P 500 and ~11,300 on the DJIA would [...]

Giving uptrend benefit of the doubt

Last week the market tested and held above key downside support levels at ~1230 on the S&P 500 and ~11,100 on the DJIA, maintaining its fragile three-week-old intermediate-term uptrend. For now, until/unless those levels are broken, the benefit of the doubt goes to the current positive trend.
New positions
No new positions were added this week.
Watchlists
The [...]