The markets appear headed to ultimately test – or perhaps even break below – their 2002 lows as part of what now appears to be a huge sideways correction of the bull market of the 80s and 90s. The good news is that, if true, this “third wave” event may well be setting the stage [...]
The exuberant rally following the initial announcement of the bailout plan proposal over a week ago turns out to have been just another bounce in an ongoing decline. While that rally exhibited short-term extreme optimism (and was therefore negative), the longer-term picture continues to show bearish sentiment at high levels (a positive sign), but which [...]
After a week of backing and filling, it still appears likely that the market rally that began on 9/18 marked the beginning of a new uptrend that has further to go. A break below key near-term support levels – 10,700-10,800 (DJIA) and 1170-1180 (S&P 500) – would imply a less positive (but not necessarily clearly [...]
Last week’s extreme levels of fear and panic over the possibility of a freeze-up in the U.S. financial system appear to have marked a significant market bottom. In fact Thursday and Friday’s sharp rally – with financials notably leading the way – has already confirmed a bottom of some significance. The upmove so far has [...]
With all of the gnashing of teeth last week about everything from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the fate of Lehman Brothers, and Hurricane Ike to falling commodity prices and slower worldwide growth, most major market indices still managed to hold above their July lows. More important, bearish market sentiment is once again rising to [...]
